In one of his first pieces since joining The Athletic's dream team of Bay Area sports writer's, Grant Brisbee wrote Why Bryce Harper Made Sense for the Giants. It seems someone is a proud subscriber in the Giants' office (and potentially owns a time machine) because reports emerged this morning that the Giants leadership team of Larry Baer, Farhan Zaidi, and Bruce Bochy met with Harper and super-agent Scott Boras last week. I'm right there with the rest of Giants' fans hoping Bryce comes to the Bay. However, one team looks to me like the ideal home for Bryce and I haven't heard enough about them, so here we are. The Blue Jays finished in fourth-place in the AL East, a distant 17 GB of the third-place Rays and 35 GB behind the world champion Boston Red Sox for the division title. They were a non-story in the 2018 season and that's the first reason someone like Harper should be of interest. Whatever jersey Harper is wearing in 2019 will bring pundits and (more importantly) fans to the stadium. The Yankees, Red Sox, and (quietly) the Rays have all built strong young cores with reinforcements on the way. The Blue Jays are not going to be able to marginally inch their way to get to the top of the division, but, luckily for them, two things are lined up in their favor.
They have a future spending capacity that no one else in the division has at the moment. The Orioles... well they're the Orioles. The Yankees and Red Sox have dedicated big money to build their teams to win-now and their young stars are coming up on free-agency soon. The Rays never have and barring some sudden ownership change never will. Toronto's opening day payroll has been over $160m the last two seasons (according to Cot's Baseball Contracts), but as of today have less than $105m in payroll commitments for 2019 (via Spotrac). Oh, and it gets better. They have less than $25m guaranteed in 2020 and almost none of that savings is due to the loss of core pieces. The second advantage the Blue Jays have lies in their farm-system, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He is a consensus top 3 prospect in baseball and there is a real argument to be made that he should be #1, Bo Bichette is a consensus top-15 prospect in the game, Danny Jansen & Nate Pearson are both staples on most top-100 lists, and 3 more young guys found their way onto the Baseball America list of top 100 prospects. However, none of the players I've mentioned can do one thing: play a corner outfield position. The Blue Jays are set to have an elite lineup core with Jansen behind the plate, Guerrero Jr. at 3B or DH, and Bichette at SS. I'm a big fan of some of their peripheral prospects as well (Cavan Biggio and especially Chavez Young). Pitching will be an issue for them, they lack any top of the rotation arms since the regression of Marcus Stroman. Sean Reid-Foley and Nate Pearson both have the stuff to be on the top of a rotation, but also have other questions. Still, the rest of the Blue Jays system will give them the depth to acquire top-end starters when the time comes. I haven't mentioned Logan Warmoth, Jordan Groshans, and Kevin Smith all ranked as 45 FV prospects according to FanGraphs and all are set to be blocked on the big club. Harper would be expensive, but the Blue Jays could afford to offer him 11 years at $35m a year and still have plenty of financial flexibility. When it comes time for Bichette and Guerrero Jr. and the rest of their core to get new contracts maybe money will be tight. But, in 5 years Harper will still only be 31, the league saw the Miami Marlins move the current record for largest contract in MLB history (Giancarlo Stanton) with plenty of money remaining. Harper makes them relevant now and a contender far sooner than anyone thinks today.
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About MeI have been a die-hard fan of the San Francisco Giants, San Francisco 49ers, and Golden State Warriors my entire life. Following them (and the surrounding leagues) have given me a lot of strong opinions on sports. Links to some of Marc's Articles around the Web:
Articles for GSC Articles for ATF Ramos & Allen Selloff Series: Giants Giants Trade Deadline Kenyon Baseball Preview Archives
August 2019
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