This has already been one of the most active off-seasons in NFL history at the quarterback position with five primary starters from this past season already changing teams (Alex Smith, DeShone Kizer, Case Keenum, Tyrod Taylor, and Kirk Cousins). Now we are less than 48 hours away from the start of the 2018 NFL Draft and many analysts say this year's class of QBs is one of the best in years. Many pundits have graded four quarterbacks worthy of top 10 picks, there are potentially six that will go in the first round. Hidden behind the quarterbacks, however, is a very deep draft class, this is how I see the chips falling: 1. CLEVELAND BROWNS WYOMING QB JOSH ALLEN No one sees a curveball coming from Cleveland and that makes me a little uneasy. This pick is being mocked between Allen and QB Sam Darnold from USC. Allen is the project of the two with the arm strength to make a coach dream, Darnold is a much surer thing. Frankly, I’m not a fan of Allen. If I was a GM I would be far too hesitant to pull the trigger on him early in round 1. MMQB’s Peter King argued that the long-history of failed Browns’ QBs would lead GM John Dorsey to the safer Darnold, but I see it in the opposite light. Dorsey is in his first year in charge of Cleveland after working for Kansas City for the previous four years. He has made a point that the Browns’ past is not going to make him act any differently than he would at the helm of any other team. Allen has the tools teams tend to fall in love with and Dorsey was involved in drafting a raw-toolsy QB last year in Patrick Mahomes. If you are looking for an out there theory on what could happen at the top of the draft I think we may see a draft day trade between the Browns and the Jets. The Browns have had no leaks out of their office about what they want to do at number one and in my mind that always screams trade. The Jets are reportedly enamored with Baker Mayfield and if that’s true the Browns smokescreen would be quite useful if they are indeed between Allen and Darnold at the top of their board. They could slide back to three, acquire some more capital and pick whichever QB is left if one is picked at two or still have their choice. 2. NEW YORK GIANTS TRADE TO BUFFALO BILLS USC QB SAM DARNOLD Reports have suggested that the Bills are not going to sell out to trade up with the Giants and are hoping to move up to five or six depending on who is left. I don’t buy it. I’ve seen the potential for a three-team deal between Buffalo, New York, and Denver for quite awhile anyway and this is my opportunity to show it off. Part of the reason the Giants have been asking for a lot from Buffalo is they would have to drop all the way back to pick #12 and GM Dave Gettleman would lose out on the top non-quarterbacks of the draft (DE Bradley Chubb, RB Saquon Barkley, and OG Quenton Nelson). Working with Denver, who has recently made a point that their pick is available, would allow New York to only slide back a few picks to number five where they are guaranteed to have Chubb, Barkley, or Nelson left on the board and they could add picks 56 and 96 (the lower of Buffalo’s two second and third round picks) . Denver would get picks 12 and 23 from Buffalo to give up 5. While, many are saying Buffalo is averse to giving up the house to move up let’s take a step back and look at what it costs them. They move all the way to the second pick in the draft from 12 by adding a late 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick. They would still have their pick in the 2nd round, Cleveland’s 3rd round pick (acquired in the Tyrod Taylor trade), and all of their picks in future drafts. This trade gives everyone what they want and does not require anyone to pay a premium. This of course, assumes that the Giants don't want Darnold for themselves, which has been reported. I think Giants' GM Dave Gettleman wants a surer thing than any of the options under center. In my opinion, it makes too much sense not to get done. Darnold has been considered a top five pick since his freshman year at USC and no one has a bad thing to say about him. If you need any more reason to believe Darnold is who GM Brandon Beane will target, back in January he was talking about what the right quarterback looks like, he went on about intangibles: “I talk about the leadership, the smarts. How competitive is he?” The areas Darnold is considered the strongest among the top prospects. 3. NEW YORK JETS OKLAHOMA QB BAKER MAYFIELD Reports have wavered out of New York. I’m basing this pick off the reports that they love Mayfield and frankly, I see why they would. He’s my favorite QB among the “Big Four” of Darnold, Allen, Mayfield, and Rosen. His biggest questions have not come on-field and his character questions stem from on-field taunts, which frankly are not a concern of mind in scouting, and one legitimate question-mark in his 2017 arrest. It is something to be concerned about, but it does not come close to what Johnny Manziel’s rap sheet was out of college and even looking back, Jameis Winston had a much more concerning series of off-field incidents and he still went number one. Some argue that New York may be just the place that’s too big for Mayfield and maybe it is, but it’s the stage he’s been asking for his whole life and I get the sense being the 3rd quarterback selected would be just the chip on his shoulder he will love to use at the next level. 4. CLEVELAND BROWNS PENN STATE RB SAQUON BARKLEY Bradley Chubb is a fit here, but the Browns have already made a lot of recent investments in their defensive line. While, John Dorsey was not involved in those decisions, Myles Garrett is a stud and I think Carl Nassib and Emmanuel Ogbah showed enough last year to give the front-office faith that at least one of them will emerge on the opposite end of Garrett. However, on offense, the Browns just invested big in wide receiver after trading and signing Jarvis Landry to a massive extension, they’ve spent a lot of money and quietly built a solid offensive line, but Carlos Hyde is not who they see as their long-term running back. I’m not as high on Barkley as some draft analysts, but he’s a legitimate top 10 talent and I see the Browns giving themselves a safe bet after taking a risk with Allen first overall. 5. DENVER BRONCOS TRADE TO NEW YORK GIANTS NOTRE DAME OG QUENTON NELSON I’ve just seen GM Dave Gettleman fitting with Nelson perfectly from day one and the three-team deal with Denver and Buffalo makes it even easier to visualize. Nelson is the best guard prospect in years and seems destined to be a pro-bowler for years and if Vegas made odds on draft prospects one day making the hall of fame, Nelson’s would be the best. He’s made opponents look silly for years. I also don’t think this means the Giants aren’t taking their QB of the future in 2018, but there are a number of good QB prospects who will be there on day two. For now, however, Gettleman gets the best mauler in the draft. 6. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS NC STATE DE BRADLEY CHUBB As Josh Rosen begins falling down draft boards the Colts will get calls from Miami and some other teams, but I don’t think anyone will give them a good enough offer to pass up one of the remaining defensive players left. The potential to move Fitzpatrick around the defense and pair him with last year’s top pick Malik Hooker would have to make new Defensive Coordinator Matt Eberflus salivate, CB Denzel Ward and even LB Roquan Smith would make sense here as well, but if Bradley Chubb falls here, he’s both a great value and the perfect fit for the Colts as they transition to Eberflus’ 4-3 scheme. 7. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS ALABAMA DB MINKAH FITZPATRICK Miami will call and I could see them moving up and getting Rosen here. Tampa needs help in the secondary and between Fitzpatrick, Ward, S Derwin James, and CB Josh Jackson there would be someone left at 11 for Tampa, but Fitzpatrick is a tier above the other three. I think Fitzpatrick has suffered from analyst fatigue. His size, athleticism, and versatility got him a lot of love early in the process, but he’s quietly faded as we’ve entered the home stretch. He’s still a stud, and he’d be my pick to be the defensive rookie of the year in Tampa. 8. CHICAGO BEARS TRADE TO MIAMI DOLPHINS UCLA QB JOSH ROSEN Here it is. Rosen was neck and neck with the rest for the top pick in the draft, but he does have the lowest ceiling and that seems to matter the most among Quarterback prospects. Recent reports have made his liberalism and outspoken nature something that will cause a problem in the locker room, but I think if anything it will be a way for him to form bonds with his teammates. After all, Colin Kaepernick was voted best teammate by the 49ers the year he kneeled, it was fans and executives that had a problem with Kaepernick’s activism. He’s had some injuries and after what the Dolphins have dealt with in Ryan Tannehill they won’t be ecstatic about his injury history and lack of mobility, but Rosen is able to survey from the pocket and deliver a strong accurate ball and has the makings of a solid NFL starter. 9. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS TRADE TO NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS LOUISVILLE QB LAMAR JACKSON This is my Patrick Mahomes moment. Last year, no one saw a trade up coming from Kansas City and no one saw it coming for Patrick Mahomes. This year the toolsy QB is Jackson and I see a few teams as potential players to jump up to grab him: Miami, New England, Pittsburgh, and New Orleans. I just had Miami take Rosen so that would take them out of the running for Jackson and the relationship between the 49ers’ duo of Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch and Bill Belichick gets the Patriots the deal. This technically would not be completely out of nowhere as people have noticed the Patriots’ accumulation of picks. If they don’t move here I think New Orleans makes the move. They have the talent and roster that can afford to do what the Chiefs did last year and trade a future 1st along with their current to get their future QB. Plus, with QB Drew Brees locked up for two more years they would be a good spot for Jackson to adjust to the NFL. The Patriots make sense for the same reasons and have two first round picks they can get the deal done and the 49ers might be willing to take a bit less to further their relationship with the Patriots after receiving their franchise QB (Jimmy Garoppolo) for just a 2nd round pick. 10. OAKLAND RAIDERS NOTRE DAME OT MIKE MCGLINCHEY The Raiders have a number of needs. The host of previously mentioned defensive players would all fit here. However, Jon Gruden came back to Oakland because of Derek Carr and Carr’s struggles last season weren’t helped by a poor offensive line. The age of Donald Penn at the blind side (he turns 35 the day after they make this selection) and the struggles they faced from their right tackle position last year make McGlinchey the pick here. 11. MIAMI DOLPHINS TRADE TO CHICAGO BEARS OHIO STATE CB DENZEL WARD I could see the Bears feeling comfortable drafting WR Calvin Ridley from Alabama hear (satisfying a big need for the Bears). The droves of remaining talent may give them an avenue to trade back again and get Ridley a few picks later, but GM Ryan Pace preaches always picking the best player available and Ward has played all around in Ohio State’s scheme so he could play the slot if needed. Ward is the best cover corner in the draft and I don’t see the Bears passing on it hear. 12. BUFFALO BILLS TRADE TO DENVER BRONCOS GEORGIA LB ROQUAN SMITH Derwin James would fill the biggest need for the Broncos at Safety, but Roquan Smith is one of the 10 best players in the draft and he seems like a guy who John Elway would love to have on his team. His ability in pass coverage makes him a true three-down linebacker and he can go sideline to sideline on every play. In terms of value, this would be a steal for Denver. 13. WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM WASHINGTON DT VITA VEA Washington squandered their opportunity with Kirk Cousins, but found another above-average QB to handle the duties under center in Alex Smith. Smith, like Cousins, however, is not good enough to carry the team with it’s dearth of talent. I originally mocked WR Calvin Ridley, but I think the Washington front-office believes enough in Josh Doctson and won’t want to use a 1st rounder on the same position so close together. They have needs all over the place. DT Vita Vea would fill one. They have a lot of work to do, but Vea is probably the safest bet of anyone on the defensive side of the ball (I’d call him the defensive counterpart to Nelson). 14. GREEN BAY PACKERS IOWA CB JOSH JACKSON Some people think CB Mike Hughes makes sense here, but I think Jackson is the better prospect and I think the Packers do too. Jackson ran a slow 40-time and that has teams concerned, but he caught scout’s eyes with his performance on the field at Iowa. You don’t fall into eight interceptions. He’s got good size at 6’1’’ and is a former receiver and you can tell with his great instincts. The Packers only apparent need is at cornerback and Jackson fills it. 15. ARIZONA CARDINALS OKLAHOMA ST QB MASON RUDOLPH Everyone has the Cardinals on the lookout for a QB. I think they will be. I could see them outbidding Miami to jump up and take Rosen, but I think if they lose out they won’t be shy about taking who’s left of Rudolph or Jackson. They might still have to move up to make this pick as Pittsburgh and New Orleans could have their eye on jumping up as well. It’s a stretch for Rudolph, but the league always stretches for quarterbacks, especially on Day 1. Calvin Ridley would be the perfect fit here as the heir apparent to Larry Fitzgerald if they can hold off the urge to take a signal-caller, but I don’t think they show the restraint. 16. BALTIMORE RAVENS FLORIDA STATE S DERWIN JAMES The Ravens have shown a lot of interest in James and his versatility makes him a great fit. LB Trumaine Edmunds is right there with Roquan Smith talent wise and the Ravens might be tempted to take such a good value, but they’re pretty set at LB. DE Marcus Davenport has been mocked here quite a bit, and he would give the team a good pass-rushing project, but I think James is the pick. 17. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS VIRGINIA TECH LB TRUMAINE EDMUNDS People will be jumping for joy in the Chargers war room if Edmunds falls in their laps at 17. He not only fits a need at linebacker he’s one of the best players in the draft. If Edmunds doesn’t make it this far (few mocks have him falling past 12), they need help on the offensive line and I could see them moving back a bit in the round and takin someone like Frank Ragnow, but in this scenario they stand pat and celebrate nabbing Edmunds. 18. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS UTSA DE MARCUS DAVENPORT Mike Hughes would make sense here, but I think the off-field concerns leaves the Seahawks going elsewhere with the pick. The Seahawks, like the Chargers need help on the interior offensive line and I could see them trading back if they don’t love someone (they don't have a 2nd or 3rd round pick and the Colts have three 2nd rounders and could look to jump back up here). But, Davenport is another guy who falls because of the run on quarterbacks. He’s built to play on an NFL defensive line and as the Seahawks look to rebuild a stellar defense, Davenport seems like the kind of building block they'll be looking for. 19. DALLAS COWBOYS ALABAMA WR CALVIN RIDLEY The Cowboys released Dez Bryant and they luck into a great receiver here at 19 with Ridley. He’s been a first-round prospect for years and the Alabama offense has kept his numbers far below where they’d have been at another program. The Wide Receiver position has had a string of failures in round 1 and that may lead people to shy away from Ridley, but that would be a mistake. He’s legit. 20. DETROIT LIONS ALABAMA DT DA’RON PAYNE Albert Breer and Peter King have already pointed out that Payne fits the design for a Matt Patricia defensive lineman. He’s young at only 20 years old and has a lot of time to morph from the two-down player he is now, to the three-down interior force that Detroit hopes they can create. 21. CINCINNATI BENGALS UTEP G WILL HERNANDEZ The Bengals are another team to watch on the QB trade hunt, but in this scenario they lose out and will have to wait till Day 2 to grab one. Their consolation prize is a solid Guard prospect in Hernandez who should fill a hole on a tremendously weak offensive line. Not a bad consolation. 22. BUFFALO BILLS TRADE TO DENVER BRONCOS IOWA OL JAMES DANIELS Denver showed they were not afraid to draft for need last year by picking Tackle Garrett Boles. This year they do it again with an interior lineman in Daniels. I could see Texas A&M WR Christian Kirk going here, but I think Daniels is the pick. 23. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS TRADE TO SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS BOSTON COLLEGE OLB/DE HAROLD LANDRY The 49ers might very well take Landry with the 9th pick on Thursday, so if they are able to trade down and still get the edge-rusher they’d be more than content. It’s hard to imagine him slipping past this many teams, but this past season did see a dip in production that has some people raising questions. Still there’s no denying that edge-rush is a need for the 49ers and if Landry gets passed pick 15, whoever drafts him will be getting great value. 24. CAROLINA PANTHERS CENTRAL FLORIDA CB MIKE HUGHES Hughes has had some off-field questions make his draft stock a bit of a question mark, but this late in the first round the potential makes it worth the risk for the Panthers who’ve been searching for shutdown corner ever since they let Josh Norman walk away. 25. TENNESSEE TITANS SOUTH CAROLINA TE HAYDEN HURST Tight End doesn’t seem like a need for Tennessee, but Delanie Walker will be 34 in August and it doesn’t hurt to give Marcus Mariota another weapon. Alabama ILB Rashaan Evans is another fit here and fills a more pressing need, but Hurst has elite-playmaker potential with 4.67 speed to carry a 6’5’’ frame. 26. ATLANTA FALCONS FLORIDA DT TAVEN BRYAN Maurice Hurst is another fit here as an interior lineman for Atlanta, but I think the Falcons go with the 300 pounder who can run a sub-5.0 40 time. Bryan didn’t produce a lot in college, Atlanta needs some bodies on their defensive line and Bryan gives them an athletic big-one that has plenty of projection. 27. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS OHIO STATE C BILLY PRICE I could see the Saints going in a lot of directions. I could see a trade up to get a QB for the future, Peter King suggested Frank Ragnow as an heir to Max Unger’s at Center, while I agree with King that they will go with a center I see Ohio State’s Billy Price as the pick. 28. PITTSBURGH STEELERS LOUISVILLE CB JAIRE ALEXANDER Rashaan Evans seems like the perfect fit here. They need a playmaker to replace Ryan Shazier and Leighton Vander Esch is another option. However, Alexander runs a sub-4.4 40 and has cover skills that could put him opposite Artie Burns for a long time in Pittsburgh. 29. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS SMU WR COURTLAND SUTTON It seems obvious that a wide receiver will go here. I would not be surprised to see a big trade up from Jacksonville to grab Calvin Ridley with so few roster needs. Calvin Kirk, D.J. Moore, and D.J. Chark are all fits, but I go with the 6’4’’ Courtland Sutton who has legit #1 WR potential. 30. MINNESOTA VIKINGS UCLA OT KOLTON MILLER The Vikings have a lot of issues on their offensive line, but this mock has seen a good amount of interior lineman go already, so they decide to try to get help at tackle with Kolton Miller. Miller is a long drop from McGlinchey and he has a low-floor, but this late in the first round his high ceiling is all the Vikings need. 31. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS TRADE TO SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS ALABAMA LB RASHAAN EVANS The 49ers have been mocked linebackers Trumaine Edmunds and Roquan Smith quite a bit at number 9. With Reuben Foster’s recent legal troubles and the team’s lack of other long-term options at the position it makes a certain amount of sense, but it did seem like a lot of draft capital for the top 10. However, this turned into a dream scenario for the 49ers, landing a pass-rusher in Landry and a top-20 player with the penultimate pick of the 1st round giving them some much needed insurance on Reuben Foster. 32. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES LSU RB DERRIUS GUICE Guice is a top 20 talent with a lot of questions. He apparently made a lot of enemies in the LSU locker room and teams are concerned about that. The Eagles coming off a Super Bowl win have the locker room chemistry that can risk bringing in Guice and hope that their strong veteran leadership can help him be a productive player in the locker room because few people doubt that he will be on the field.
1 Comment
Erik austin
3/15/2020 08:16:41 am
“More than Ten times the legal limit”
Reply
Leave a Reply. |
About MeI have been a die-hard fan of the San Francisco Giants, San Francisco 49ers, and Golden State Warriors my entire life. Following them (and the surrounding leagues) have given me a lot of strong opinions on sports. Links to some of Marc's Articles around the Web:
Articles for GSC Articles for ATF Ramos & Allen Selloff Series: Giants Giants Trade Deadline Kenyon Baseball Preview Archives
August 2019
Categories
All
|