This year's NBA Draft was setup to be one of the most active in history. There were a number of prospects at the top of the draft and teams like Atlanta and Memphis who wanted to move down, the Clippers had two top 14 picks, Kawhi Leonard had asked for a trade, and the Celtics still have their hoard of picks next year. But, then the draft went rather quietly with only two major trades in the top 15. The strength of this draft class was depth and it made teams weary to give up valuable assets or take on bad contracts when they could still get a prospect they liked where they were. Here's my thoughts on every pick and trade: 1) Phoenix Suns
Deandre Ayton C Arizona Ayton was the consensus number one prospect and the Suns long-run of failed high draft picks (Alex Len and Dragan Bender) gave them little leeway to take a risk like Danny Ainge did last season trading from 1 to 3. However, I still think it would have been worth the pushback. There was not a large enough gap between Ayton, Luka Doncic, Mo Bamba, Jaren Jackson Jr., and others to make a trade unreasonable. After all, if Atlanta got Dallas to give up a future 1st to move from the fifth to third pick maybe the Suns could have gotten a couple of future firsts. Still, it’s hard to criticize without knowing what trades were actually offered to Phoenix and the fact still remains Ayton should be a solid starter from day 1. Grade: B 2) Sacramento Kings Marvin Bagley III PF Duke In last week’s podcast I talked about the reports that Bagley would go number two to the Kings. I didn’t like it then and I don’t like it now. Bagley was atrocious defensively at Duke, so bad in fact that Hall fo Fame coach Mike Krzyewski went to a zone defense for the first time in his tenure at Duke. While, Bagley has length and athleticism on his side, he does not have yet have a consistent enough jump shot to knock down threes. I said last week I saw Bagley as an athletic David Lee, I guy who would give a team consistent double-doubles on his athleticism and hustle but wouldn’t be the guy to carry a team to a title. As much as I think they left a lot more potential on the board, Bagley will start and should have a productive enough career that this won’t become the Darko pick of the draft, which for the Kings is great progress. Grade: C- 3) Dallas Mavericks acquired from Atlanta for 5th pick and a future Dallas 1st Luka Doncic G Real Madrid/Slovenia Doncic was considered the top prospect in the draft early in the process and the early hype got him a lot of early attention that had some people expecting him to fall out of the top five. Everyone agrees he’s the safest pick in the draft having won MVP in the second-best basketball league in the world, but the questions about his ceiling are where it gets murky. Ceiling is impossible to ever truly understand because it relies on see something that isn’t there. It is determining what a player could be if all of the ifs come true. So, we often fall prey to our eye and lean heavily on athleticism and strength to show us what a player could do if his basketball skills were to form around his body (look at this year’s top pick). However, this probably leads us to ignore skills a bit too much. It’s, in fact, the one question mark every great Warrior had entering the draft: Kevin Durant lacked strength, Stephen Curry lacked strength and athleticism, Klay Thompson was too slow, and Draymond Green was too fat, but every one of them was incredibly skilled and focused on honing their craft. Doncic is not extremely quick and will probably never be able to be much better than average defensively, but he has a well-rounded offensive game that should make him an offensive difference maker. Grade: B+ 4) Memphis Grizzlies Jaren Jackson Jr. PF/C Michigan State Of the big-men at the top of the draft, Jackson was simultaneously one of the rawest and safest picks. His incredible length and athleticism profile to be an All-NBA defender and at times showed great instincts at Michigan State that makes some think he could already be a solid anchor to an NBA defense, but then he’d pick up a couple quick fouls and be sent to the bench. His offensive game is a work in progress and needs some fine-tuning. He has a solid foundation for a jump shot, but it still lacks consistency and it will need to progress for him to be more than just a rim-runner offensively. Still, Jackson was one of the youngest players in the draft (still 18) and is a better schematic fit for Memphis next to Marc Gasol than other options (like Bamba). Grade: A 5) Atlanta Hawks acquired with a future Dallas 1st from Dallas for #3 Trae Young PG Oklahoma I have been an adamant defender of Young for quite a while. I went into detail in last week’s podcast and it’ll probably come up soon enough, but my main issue is that people say “Trae Young is not Stephen Curry because…” of a number of things, but his size primarily while disregarding how small Curry was after his freshman year at Davidson. But, that doesn’t mean Young is a perfect prospect, there are very legitimate concerns about his defensive ability and the effort (or lack thereof) he showed in college. Still, a Young supporter would point out that he had to take on such an offensive load he had to be weary of picking up fouls and save his energy for the offensive side. Regardless, he is the best shooter in the draft and his shot paired with his strong vision do look an awful lot like many of the best point guards in the league. Curry developed in large part because he was thrown on the floor for a terrible Warriors team where his coach Don Nelson told him he always had the green light. He got to learn and progress by getting free reign (when Monta Ellis wasn’t on the court) of a bad team. The Hawks are in position to do the same for Young and that should help immensely in his development. Grade: B+ 6) Orlando Magic Mo Bamba C Texas This year’s draft was deep at the top with no far and ahead best player. While, most had Ayton number one, there were legitimate arguments for Doncic, but I was in Mo Bamba’s camp. Bamba has the longest wingspan in NBA history at 7’10’’ and he runs the floor at 7’1’’ like a small forward. His jump shot was raw at Texas, but he has spent the offseason working with guru Drew Hanlen who helped Jayson Tatum overall his jump shot last year and Bamba’s shot already looks much cleaner. Bamba is still a bit raw defensively and at times was slow on rotation, but his length makes it easy to see a Rudy Gobert kind of anchor. The one drawback of his body is it’s incredibly thin. Bamba still weighs less than 230 pounds and will get pushed around down low if he doesn’t bulk up. With that said, the Magic were sitting in a perfect draft position where they could pick whoever was left of the top 6 prospects and come away with someone who very well could be the best player in the draft. To me, they got the best prospect period. Grade: A+ 7) Chicago Bulls Wendell Carter Jr. C Duke Once Bamba went off the board there was a huge drop off in the available talent (unless a team was willing to take a chance on Michael Porter Jr.’s back). The Bulls went with Carter who was forced to play second fiddle to Bagley once he reclassified at Duke, but still showed good upside. He is a very skilled big who has a solid build and good quickness in really a flaw free game. He’s been compared to Elton Brand and Al Horford and that’s the style of play Carter fits. Unlike Bagley you can see him impact the game outside the box score and seems like someone who may never receive the recognition he deserves but will be a good player for many years. Grade: B+ 8) Cleveland Cavaliers Collin Sexton PG Alabama Oh the Cavs. They were the first team I thought should have taken Michael Porter Jr.. They need a franchise player if LeBron leaves and he has a similar skillset to James as well. With that said, the Cavs made the safer choice in Sexton. Sexton is a scoring guard who can create shots on his own and showed solid defensive ability at Alabama. I think Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the better PG prospect, but Sexton fits better if LeBron sticks around in Cleveland. Drafting a point guard gives the Cavs flexibility to try and move George Hill to acquire some more pieces whether LeBron returns or not as well. The Cavs are in many ways Schrodinger’s team until LeBron makes his decision they are simultaneously one of the best teams in the East and one of the worst. Sexton, though, makes them better. Grade: B- 9) New York Knicks Kevin Knox SF Kentucky Knox is built for today’s NBA and very much could be a position less contributor, but he’s a far way away. An underwhelming season at Kentucky had him sitting at the end of the lottery, but great postseason workouts had him shoot up boards. He has a solid jump shot to combine with solid length and build (6’9’’ with a 7’0’’ wingspan) and in many ways is a poor man’s Michael Porter Jr. Knox will need a couple years of development and Porter may need to sit out a year because of injury how each turns out will determine how this pick is viewed. I myself will always take the talent with injury risk over the player who has a longer way to go. Grade: B- 10) Phoenix Suns acquired from Philadelphia for the 16th pick and Miami’s 2021 1st Mikal Bridges SF Villanova This pick went from the feel-good story of the draft to the feel awkward story of the draft. If you don’t already know, Bridges grew up a 76ers fan in Philadelphia. His mother works in human resources for the Sixers and, at least on paper, he looks like the perfect fit for a team looking to compete that needed shooting. Minutes after his mother was shown worldwide thanking the Sixers organization the news broke that he had been traded to the Suns. Bridges is as close to NBA ready as anyone after spending 3 years in Villanova and looks like a great future 3 and D player. Defensively, he has shown potential to be a difference maker using his length well. He would have made perfect sense in Philly, but for the Suns to give up a prime asset like the unprotected Miami 1st to get him is an unjustified win-now move for a franchise that needs to be hoarding assets like Danny Ainge. However, the trade doesn’t effect my grade (bottom of piece for trade grades) and Bridges slots into a Suns lineup built around Ayton and Devin Booker quite well. Grade: B+ 11) Los Angeles Clippers acquired from Charlotte for the 12th pick and 2 future 2nds Shai Gilgeous-Alexander PG Kentucky Gilgeous-Alexander’s combination of length and athleticism had some calling him the best point guard in the draft. A nearly 7-foot wingspan combined with his ball-handling make him a tantalizing prospect that I would have picked above Sexton. However, his jump-shot needs to become more consistent and if it doesn’t it will keep him from being a game-changer but will still be a solid-contributor. It also helps me like the pick that Jerry West is on board with it. Grade: A- 12) Charlotte Hornets acquired from Los Angeles with two 2nds for the 11th pick Miles Bridges SF Michigan State Bridges (not related to Mikel) would have been a lottery pick last season, but decided to return to school to try and get a national championship. Michigan State fell short again and while Bridges showed a more consistent jump shot he didn’t progress enough as a scorer to justify moving up from where he was last year. He’s a solid shooter who has the potential to play the small-ball power forward in the mold of Harrison Barnes or Tobias Harris. He doesn’t have any glaring weakness except for ball-handling, which has kept him from reaching another level. If he could unlock that the Hornets got a steal, but it’s more likely they got a solid starter that gives them some more rotational depth. Grade: B 13) Los Angeles Clippers Jerome Robinson SG Boston College This was the first major surprise of the draft. Robinson was a big-time riser in the pre-draft process, but no one expected him to go in the lottery. Some reports suggest Jerry West was taken aback by Robinson in workouts and Jerry West has proven the consensus wrong time and time again, but it seems like a big reach that some are justifying because they had two lottery picks. To me it makes it worse, the Clippers grabbed a great value in Gilgeous-Alexander and it would have made more sense to take the risk on Michael Porter Jr. here. Grade: D 14) Denver Nuggets Michael Porter Jr. SF Missouri No pick was a greater value, no pick was a better fit, and no pick is a greater risk. Porter came out of high school as the top prospect in the country, but injuries left him with only 53 minutes played in his college career. Then a back spasm forced him to cancel a workout with the Chicago Bulls and reports emerged that some teams removed him from their draft boards entirely after they received his medicals. It’s worth mentioning that some speculated Porter was using his medical issues to scare teams he didn’t want to go to (like Sacramento) into not taking him. Regardless, you don’t see guys with his talent available at 14. Furthermore, Denver has a deceptively deep roster that lacks an elite outside scorer like Porter. If he reaches his potential Denver will be one of the best teams in the Western Conference. However, we won’t know the true worth of the pick until we wait and see. Grade: A 15) Washington Wizards Troy Brown Jr. SG Oregon Brown is probably a bit of a reach at 15 with a higher upside wing in Zhaire Smith still on the board and it becomes even more peculiar when you imagine his fit alongside John Wall. He’s got great length that should make him a good defender who can defend multiple positions. He has the ability to handle the ball and pass to be a legit point-forward, but his underdeveloped jump shot has a lot of room for improvement. He has been compared to Evan Turner who isn’t a bad player, he just doesn’t fit in Washington. Grade: D+ 16) Philadelphia 76ers acquired from Phoenix with Miami’s 2021 1st for #10 Zhaire Smith F/G Texas Tech Zhaire Smith is in many ways a process kind of pick. He is very raw offensively and is probably at least a couple seasons away from being component on that side of the floor. However, he showed a high-basketball IQ in college and may already be the best athlete in the NBA. He is ready to play defense in the NBA and I think many people are underestimating the value a guy like Smith offers in a potential playoff matchup against Jayson Tatum, Kyrie Irving, or LeBron James. Don’t get me wrong, Bridges would have been a much better immediate help to the 6ers but acquiring the Heat’s unprotected 2021 pick gave them a good reason to trade down and they still got very good value just outside the lottery. Grade: B+ 17) Milwaukee Bucks Donte DiVincenzo SG Villanova DiVincenzo made his name in Nova’s tournament run. The rest of his season didn’t have impressive numbers and that led many to pan this pick as a reach. I understand the skepticism, but DiVincenzo continued his tear in the pre-draft process where he was impressive in workouts and at the combine against other top prospects. Furthermore, he’s a great athlete with the highest standing vertical recorded at the combine. He’s a scorer with a consistent three-point shot that should give him a floor as a solid bench scorer. He has a relentless motor that I think will make him a better defensive player than people expect. He will be an interesting test of recency bias. I for one am buying. Grade: B 18) San Antonio Spurs Lonnie Walker IV SG Miami Walker came into the year looking like a top-ten pick but fell early in the season. I saw him play in Miami’s first loss of the season against New Mexico State and he was virtually non-existent. However, after the team’s leader Bruce Brown went down with an injury Walker began to show his true potential and regained a good amount of value and nearly made it back into the lottery. Walker is an explosive athlete who had moments where he could take over a game offensively, but at the very least is ready to be a slasher. On the other side he is sturdy defensively and uses his athleticism well to keep guys in front of him. He actually had some Kawhi Leonard comparisons before the draft and while I don’t see him quite reaching those heights the Spurs have a long-history of squeezing out potential. Grade: A- 19) Atlanta Hawks Kevin Huerter SG Maryland Huerter had a good performance at the combine that saw him move up draft boards. He is the best catch and shoot player in the draft and showed an ability to shoot coming off ball screens as well. He received comparisons to Klay Thompson pre-draft and Hawks’ GM Travis Schlenk (who was hired out of Golden State) is seen as trying to re-create the Warriors by combining Huerter with Young. No one expects Huerter to become the defender that Thompson has though and that is room for concern. Still at 6’7’’ you hope Huerter’s length could develop into a solid defensive player and at the very least he will be a knockdown bench option, which isn’t bad for 19. Grade: B 20) Minnesota Timberwolves Josh Okogie SG Georgia Tech Since the Timberwolves acquired Jimmy Butler they’ve made a string of moves I didn’t understand. The first was using all of their remaining cap space to sign Taj Gibson when they already had a solid option at PF in Gorgui Dieng and no backup PG. In the end, the team never had quality depth and Tim Thibodeau’s inability to get creative offensively led to a disappointing season. This move though is actually a good fit for the T’Wolves needs. Okogie is a strong perimeter defender who also has a quality jump shot. He showed some explosive athleticism at the combine that gives him the potential to be even more down the road, but at the least the T’Wolves got some wing depth. Grade: B+ 21) Utah Jazz Grayson Allen SG Duke I don’t like this pick for a number of reasons. Granted I haven’t been a Grayson Allen fan for awhile, but I understood his ability to score and shoot made sense for a team picking near the end of the first round looking for some bench scoring. The Jazz could use a scorer to lighten the load on Donovan Mitchell and there probably wasn’t a shooter as good as Allen left. Utah won’t get the attention that Duke got, which should make his life a bit easier. Okay, maybe this isn’t a bad pick. Grade: B 22) Chicago Bulls Chandler Hutchison SF Boise State The Bulls drafted like a team that earned the right to pick in the 20s, like they were a playoff team who just needs a nice role player who can catch and shoot and offer length on defense. Here’s the problem: they aren’t a playoff team. They only had this pick because the Pelicans wanted Nicola Mirotic. The Bulls have acquired a number of nice young pieces (Lavine, Marrkanen, Carter Jr., and Portis most notably) and I had high hopes they could get some upside with this pick. I thought straight out of high school Anfernee Simons would have made sense or even Robert Williams III (who’s fall is just baffling). Grade: D 23) Indiana Pacers Aaron Holiday PG UCLA Holiday has blazing speed and has the ability to play off the ball with solid catch and shoot consistency. The Pacers already have a couple solid PGs in Cory Joseph and Darren Collison, but both have some non-guaranteed money that could make them expendable if the Pacers can make a splash (they are the only playoff team set to enter the offseason with cap space). Holiday gives them insurance and while he doesn’t have the upside of the three-point guards picked above him, but he should be a rotational player soon. Grade: B+ 24) Portland Trail Blazers Anfernee Simons SG IMG Academy Simons is the first notable prospect to forego college in the newer pseudo-one-and-done era. He’s quite raw and might need two full years in the G-League to develop physically. He has solid offensive potential and already has some ability to create his own shot. The Trail Blazers, though, are an interesting fit. They are locked into a number of long-term contracts that give them no cap flexibility and if they want to take another step forward without trading one of their major pieces they needed to get a contributor in the draft and Simons is not this. Grade: C- 25) Los Angeles Lakers Moritz Wagner C Michigan Wagner profiled as a great-fit on a contender looking for a big who could stretch the floor. The Lakers are living LeBron and Paul George’s Schrodinger’s League where they both are a bad and potential contender. Wagner is a good pick if they get LeBron, giving him a player like Channing Frye he had in Cleveland to distribute to. However, in terms of prospect talent, Robert Williams is a better pick and Wagner lacks the defensive ability to profile as a starter. Furthermore, in a potential playoff series against Golden State or Houston, Wagner would probably have to be relegated to the bench ala Ryan Anderson because of his issues there. Grade: C- 26) Philadelphia 76ers Landry Shamet G Wichita State Shamet is coming from a great Wichita State program that has a history of developing smart fundamental players. He’s 6’5’’ with a solid jump-shot that should allow him to contribute as a catch and shoot off-ball player and can run an offense. I like this pick a lot for a team that will need shooting and may need another ball handler if Markelle Fultz doesn’t develop. Grade: B 27) Boston Celtics Robert Williams C Texas A&M This time Danny Ainge did not make an incredible trade in this draft. None of their plethora of assets is being cashed in this year. The Celtics were picking at the end of the first round where you hope to just get a rotational player and then, this time, the Celtics just got very very lucky. Williams is a lottery talent who know one expected to fall this far. This is why teams should never promise a guy they will take them before the draft. The Bulls reportedly promised Chandler Hutchison they’d take him and the Lakers did the same thing with Mo Wagner and I would be surprised if people in those front-offices aren’t kicking themselves right now for missing a shot at Williams. Williams has the athleticism to be a DeAndre Jordan like rim-runner who can anchor a defense and is already a solid rebounder. Questions about his maturity and work-ethic led him to fall, but he had no business falling this far. Grade: A+ 28) Golden State Warriors Jacob Evans G/F Cincinnati Evans is a flawless player who lacked an amazing tool to get him drafted higher. While, there is a consensus he lacks big-time upside, I’m still surprised he fell to the Warriors (I saw him in the 20-25 range) and thought he fit the Jazz profile. Instead the Warriors grab a guy who made great strides over his college career to become a quality 3-and-D option for a team that actually needed more outside shooting. Other than Curry, Thompson, and Durant there was no one on the roster who consistently could make an open three. Evans isn’t quite a knock down shooter, but he can make it enough to keep the defense honest and he quietly has solid handles and vision to offer some help there to. The Warriors do a great job of drafting guys who can give them what they need and Evans will fit right into their rotation next season. Grade: B+ 29) Brooklyn Nets Dzanan Musa SF KK Cedevita Musa probably would have gotten a lot more hype had Doncic not been in this class. Instead he falls here to Brooklyn where-if they can get him across the Atlantic-Musa will have a chance to grow as a player. He’s a natural scorer who always believes he’s open and is always ready to shoot. His ball-handling isn’t great, but he has the determination when he’s making a move that they play up a bit and he very much reminds me of Jordan Crawford. He’s 6’9’’ and is one of the younger players in the draft and so he actually has some defensive potential as well if he wants to take another step. However, he hasn’t really been engaged on that side of the ball yet and it will be interesting to see how he develops. This is a great pick by the Nets, a team desperately in need of building blocks. Grade: A- 30) Atlanta Hawks Omari Spellman PF/C Villanova The Hawks used the last of their trio of draft picks on, shockingly, a player who fit the Warriors mold. Spellman is a high-IQ big who can stretch the floor, handle the ball, and has weight concerns. Travis Schlenk is hoping they got their Draymond Green. Spellman made 43.3% of his 150 3PTATT this season so his shot already far exceeds Green. But, questions about Spellman’s defensive mobility led many to see him as a 2nd round talent. At the very least, the Hawks got a backup stretch big. Grade: B TRADES: Hawks Get Mavericks Get Trae Young (5th overall) Luka Doncic (3rd overall) Dallas Future 1st Doncic is a better prospect than Young because of his floor not because of upside. I would argue Young has a higher ceiling than Doncic. I know the Mavericks are set on competing next year, but in the Western Conference I find it hard to believe they’ll be able to make it to the playoffs which means they very well may be giving up another lottery pick. The Hawks got to consolidate some of Young’s risk as well. If he flops they have another pick to try to make up for it. The trade makes sense for both sides and where they see themselves, I just disagree with the Mavericks’ self-evaluation. Mavs Grade: C+ Hawks Grade: B+ 76ers Get Suns Get Zhaire Smith (16th overall) Mikal Bridges (10th overall) Miami Heat Unprotected 2021 1st I mentioned this in my writeup. This move would make more sense reverse than it does this way. The Suns aren’t good enough to be making big-risk win-now moves (even less so than the Mavs). The 6ers do have to give up a bit of today in Zhaire Smith, but Smith probably has more upside than Bridges and they get the Heat pick to add to their stockpile. Suns Grade: C- 76ers Grade: A- The Clippers-Hornets swap was minimal and made sure both teams got the guy they wanted and gave the Hornets a couple extra second-rounders. I don’t like the Clippers giving up future assets with where they’re at now, but I do like Gilgeous-Alexander. Clippers Grade: B- Hornets Grade: B+
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About MeI have been a die-hard fan of the San Francisco Giants, San Francisco 49ers, and Golden State Warriors my entire life. Following them (and the surrounding leagues) have given me a lot of strong opinions on sports. Links to some of Marc's Articles around the Web:
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August 2019
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